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铁道科学与工程学报

JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

第9卷    第5期    总第49期    2012年10月

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文章编号:1672-7029( 2012) 05-0096-07
运输通道客运量预测方法
吴伟1,2,符卓1,王晓3

(1.中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙,410075; 2.柳南铁路有限责任公司,广西南宁,530000;
3.中铁第四勘察设计院线站处,湖北武汉,430063
)

摘 要: 运输通道是指在一个运输带状地域内,由多种运输方式通过合理分工组成的客货流密集走廊。其客运量的预测是运输通道运力资源配置的一项重要基础工作。在对运输通道客运量影响因素进行定性分析的基础上,运用灰色关联度理论对各影响因素的关联度进行定量计算,筛选出主要影响因素。构建基于多影响因素的BP 神经网络模型对运输通道客运量进行预测,并以柳南客运专线所处的柳南运输通道客运量预测为实例对所提出的预测方法进行检验和客运量预测。

 

关键字: 客运量预测; 运输通道; 客运专线; 灰色关联度; BP 神经网络模型

Passenger volume forecast method for transport corridor
WU Wei1,2,FU Zhuo1,WANG Xiao3

1.School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;
2.Liunan Railway Co.Ltd.,Nanning 530000,China;
3.Track & Station Yard Department,China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430063,China

Abstract:Transport corridor is the corridor which is of dense passenger and freight flow,and is composed of a variety of transport modes with rational division.The passenger volume forecasting of it is an important basic work of transport resources allocation for the transport corridor.On the basis of qualitatively analyzing the influencing factors of passenger volume of transport corridor,grey relation grade was used to quantitatively calculate their relational degrees with the purpose of selecting the main influencing factors.A BP neural network model based on multiple influencing factors was constructed to forecast passenger volume of transport corridor.The passenger volume forecasting of Liuzhou-Nanning transport corridor,where the Liuzhou-Nanning passenger dedicated line is located,was taken as an example to test the proposed method and to forecast the passenger volume.

 

Key words: passenger volume forecast; transport corridor; passenger dedicated line; grey relation grade; BP neural network model

ISSN 1672-7029
CN 43-1423/U

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