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铁道科学与工程学报

JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

第13卷    第1期    总第70期    2016年1月

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文章编号:1672-7029(2016)01-0063-006
GM(1,1)灰色预测模型在道路软基沉降预测中的应用
李小刚,张廷会

(陕西天地地质有限责任公司,陕西西安 710054)

摘 要: 以某填海造地道路地基处理工程中的软基沉降监测实测数据为依据,通过对灰色系统理论的调研,在对GM(1,1)灰色预测模型理论进行分析的基础上,结合道路地基堆载预压处理过程,探讨GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对道路软基沉降的预测分析过程,并将所得预测结果与双曲线法、三点法预测的结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:GM(1,1)灰色预测模型所得预测值与实测值更为接近,是一种实用且精度较高的预测方法;对软土地基进行沉降分析、预测,可以有效掌握地基沉降的发展变化规律;GM(1,1)灰色预测模型也可以为类似工程的地基沉降预测提供借鉴。

 

关键字: 填海造地;灰色模型;GM(1,1);软基处理;堆载预压;沉降预测

Application of the GM (1,1) gray prediction model in the road soft foundation settlement prediction
LI Xiaogang, ZHANG Tinghui

Shaanxi Geological Co., LTD. Heaven and Earth,Xian 710054,China

Abstract:According to soft ground subsidence monitoring data of a land reclamation project in the road foundation treatment, based on the investigation and survey of grey system theory, GM (1,1) gray prediction model theory, combining road foundation Preloading process, road soft ground subsidence prediction analysis process was discussed. In addition, the prediction results by means of the hyperbolic method, three-point method were compared. The comparison result shows that, the prediction values from GM (1,1) gray model is quite close to the measured ones, as a consequence, it is a kind of more practical and accuracy method; By taking soft foundation as object of study, the analysis and forecast result showed that the foundation settlement variation development can be effectively controlled; GM (1,1) gray prediction model can also provide a reference for foundation settlement prediction in some similar projects.

 

Key words: beclamation;gray model;GM (1,1);soft foundation treatment; preloading;settlement prediction

ISSN 1672-7029
CN 43-1423/U

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