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铁道科学与工程学报

JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

第13卷    第1期    总第70期    2016年1月

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文章编号:1672-7029(2016)01-0176-05
基于Influ-Logit模型的兰州至中川铁路货运量分担率研究
宋建强1,鲍学英,王起才1,董朝阳2

(1.兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州 730070;
2.兰州中川铁路有限公司技术装备部,甘肃兰州 730000
)

摘 要: 铁路货运分担率是指铁路所占有的运输市场份额,也是确定铁路项目投资规模和进行项目经济评价的重要参数。通过市场调查确定货主在选择货物运输方式时主要考虑的影响因素,并建立相应的评价指标体系,应用层次分析法计算出各指标的权重值。利用Influ-Logit模型计算得到兰州至中川铁路货运分担率为43.98%。可见,铁路运输在短距离运输方面处于劣势地位。因此,为了提高兰州至中川铁路的货运分担率,需在铁路运输的时效性和办理程序方面不断进行改进。

 

关键字: Influ-Logit模型;货运量;分担率

Study on the share rate of Lanzhou to Zhongchuan railwayfreight volume based on Influ-Logit model
SONG Jianqiang1, BAO Xueying1, WANG Qicai1, DONG Zhaoyang2

1.School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2.Technical Equipment Department, Lanzhou Zhengchuan Railway Co. Ltd, Lanzhou 730000, China

Abstract:The share rate of railway freight transport is the carriage of goods by rail''''s share in the market. It determines the scale of investment in railway projects and are the important parameters of evaluating the project economic. Firstly, market research was carried out to determine the owner on main influencing factors when choosing a mode of transport of goods. It establishes the corresponding evaluation index system and applies the analytic hierarchy process to obtain weights of indexes. Then, Influ-Logit model was used for obtaining the share rate of 43.98% in freight transport from Lanzhou to Zhongchuan railway. It is visible that the railway transportation is in inferior position in short-distance transportation. Therefore, in order to improve the share rate of rail freight from Lanzhou to Zhongchuan, it is necessary to improve the timeliness of rail transport and handling procedures.

 

Key words: Influ-Logit model; freight volume; share rate

ISSN 1672-7029
CN 43-1423/U

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