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铁道科学与工程学报

JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

第13卷    第1期    总第70期    2016年1月

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文章编号:1672-7029(2016)01-0187-09
公路基础设施投资与产业结构优化升级的协整分析——以“新丝绸之路”经济带为例
雷天,许金良,单东辉,贾兴利

(长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064)

摘 要: 基于时间序列数据,利用ADF检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型协整理论和Granger因果检验对“新丝绸之路”经济带沿线公路基础设施投资与产业结构的关系进行实证研究,结果表明:三大产业增长与公路交通基础设施投资之间表现出一种长期均衡的关系;第二产业很大程度上能够带动公路交通基础设施的投资力度,他们之间表现为双向的因果关系;公路交通基础设施投资对第一产业、第三产业的促进作用是单向的;公路交通基础设施投资对产业结构的作用有一定的时滞或周期,时滞在2~3年。

 

关键字: 公路投资;产业结构;协整分析;Granger因果检验;“新丝路”经济带

Cointegration analysis between highway investment and optimization of industrial structure——taking "New Silk Road" economic belt as an example
LEI Tian,XU Jinliang,SHAN Donghui,JIA Xingli

Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Changan University,Xian 710064,China

Abstract:Based on the time series data, the relationship between highway investment and optimization of industrial structure along the“New Silk Road” economic belt is studied by means of Cointegration theory, VAR model and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between three kinds of industrial growth and highway investment; highway investment can largely be driven by the secondary industry and there is a two-way causality relationship between them; the promotion of highway investment on the primary industry and the tertiary industry is the one-way effect. What''''s more, there is a certain time lag or cycle of the effect of highway investment on industrial structure, which seems to be about 2~3 years.

 

Key words: highway investment; industrial structure; co-integration analysis; Granger causality test; "New Silk Road" economic belt

ISSN 1672-7029
CN 43-1423/U

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