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铁道科学与工程学报

JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

第14卷    第1期    总第82期    2017年1月

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文章编号:1672-7029(2017)01-0012-07
基于面板数据的兰新高铁区域经济特性分析
张春民,王玮强,李文添,向万里

(兰州交通大学 交通运输学院,甘肃 兰州 730070)

摘 要: 兰新高速铁路的开通运营对于西北地区的经济发展将产生深远影响。选择沿线兰州、西宁、哈密和乌鲁木齐4个地区进行经济特性分析。采用面板数据模型对GDP、贸易水平、城市化率、旅游人数和旅游收入5项经济指标进行估计。引入虚拟变量,构建4个地区的变截距面板数据模型。为保证模型的合理性,对模型进行F和t统计量以及多重共线的检验和修正。运用所建模型对地区经济指标的变化特征进行分析。实例分析表明,兰新高速铁路对沿线地区各方面的影响为显著,但不同地区的影响呈现差异。另外,高铁对于GDP和旅游业的拉动作用最大,而对于城市化水平的作用较弱。

 

关键字: 兰新高速铁路;区域经济;面板数据模型;特性分析

Analysis on regional economic characters of Lan-Xin High Speed Railway based on panel data
ZHANG Chunmin, WANG Weiqiang, LI Wentian, XIANG Wanli

Traffic & Transportation School, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Abstract:The operation of lan-xin high speed railway (LXHSR) has a deep influence on economic development in the northwest of China. Beginning with the analysis to four regions-Lanzhou, Xining, Hami and Wulumuqi, the five indexes are estimated by using panel data, which are GDP, trade level, urbanization rate, tourist number and tourist income. By the introduction of dummy variables, variable intercept panel models are established .In addition F statistic, t statistic and multiple mutual linear are tested and corrected to ensure that the panel models are reasonable.The models are used to analyze those economic development indexes. The concrete example shows that the affection of LXHSR to the line area is obvious but there are still differences among these areas. In addition, the improvement of LXHSR to GDP and tourist industry is the strongest while to the urbanization level is much weaker.

 

Key words: Lan-Xin high speed railway;regional economy;panel data model;character analysis

ISSN 1672-7029
CN 43-1423/U

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